Strike suspended, €35bn borrowing plans, and Guinness travelling first class.

19 October 2026

Good morning. Pay talks resume, Ireland plans €35bn in borrowing, and investment continues flowing into Irish businesses. Meanwhile, AI is discovering that ambition comes with a hefty bill. Let’s get into it.

Monday - The Weekend Round-Up…

The weekend brought a mixture of political developments, market moves and regulatory headaches. Behind-the-scenes talks between Jack Chambers and Fórsa’s Kevin Callinan helped avert another public-sector strike, clearing the way for formal negotiations today. Abroad, Donald Trump waived parts of recently enacted Russian sanctions and tariffs, complicating Europe's approach to Moscow. Markets finished the week divided as Dublin’s Iseq gained 2.1%, helped by Kerry and Glanbia, while the Nasdaq fell 4.4%. Dublin's AI Summit also attracted a less flattering weekend assessment, with plenty of warnings but little agreement on what comes next. Finally, a Government oversight allowed revised merger-notification thresholds to lapse on 30 September, potentially exposing recent Irish deals to CCPC investigation.

1. Formal Public Sector Pay Talks Begin Today After Strike Breakthrough. Government and unions are due to begin negotiations at the WRC today after reaching agreement on Saturday, prompting the suspension of Wednesday's planned second strike. Talks will initially focus on pay demands, inflation since 2021 and outstanding commitments from the previous agreement. The Government has allocated €1.2bn for a new deal, with additional funding potentially available, although Taoiseach Micheál Martin insists any settlement must also address productivity. After last week's 300,000-worker stoppage, the negotiations can finally get underway.

2. Ireland Plans €35bn Borrowing Push Despite Strong Bond Position. The Government plans to issue more than €35bn in new debt between 2027 and 2030 to fund spending and transfers into State savings funds, potentially lifting gross debt from €208bn to €243.2bn. Meanwhile, Ireland paid less than Germany to borrow over two and five years in September, a first in at least a decade. Strong public finances and limited Irish bond supply are supporting demand, even as the State prepares to borrow substantially more.

3. Irish Investment Deals Bring Fresh Capital Into Energy And Care. Dublin investment firm Cardinal Capital has agreed to acquire social-care provider Galro, subject to competition scrutiny, marking its third investment in the sector. Separately, Irish infrastructure investor NTR and Legal & General have secured €330m in commitments for the first close of a clean-power fund, including investment in a Kildare solar and battery project. Both developments show investors committing capital to sectors with long-term demand, although the latter transaction still faces regulatory review.

4. Starwood Eyes Further Irish Investment As Echelon Expands. US investment firm Starwood Capital is reportedly preparing to deploy additional funding into Irish data-centre operator Echelon from its $10.2bn real-estate fund. Starwood previously pledged $850m to acquire a 50% stake in the business and is also considering Ireland for a forthcoming debt fund. The potential new investment comes despite a strategic review of Echelon that has included the possibility of a full or partial sale. Further funding and a possible ownership change remain separate prospects.

5. Dublin And Cork Property Plans Reflect Changing Development Demands. Dublin City Council is advancing plans to rezone half of Eastpoint business park for housing, potentially accommodating 2,500 homes. In Cork, Bam wants to replace apartments, duplexes and detached houses within part of its approved 663-home Carrigtwohill scheme with more semi-detached houses and townhouses, citing viability and buyer demand. Meanwhile, more than a dozen O'Connell Street businesses face enforcement action over unauthorised signage and facades. Across all three, existing plans and property uses are being reconsidered, though they all relate to plans rather than completed developments.

The EU has vowed to maintain sanctions against Russia despite Washington moving to ease restrictions on Russian fuel, with Brussels preparing a 22nd sanctions package. Oil-market disruption is proving profitable for some, with ExxonMobil saying higher refining margins could boost third-quarter downstream profit by $4.5bn compared with Q2, even as supertanker shipping rates retreat from record highs. Dublin-headquartered Accenture is reportedly exploring a $1.5bn sale of its Chinese operations as it refocuses on faster-growing businesses, while Lufthansa is considering selling software assets worth close to €1bn. In the US, Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh's reluctance to signal another October rate rise sent the dollar lower, with traders reducing expectations of a hike.

Tech & AI

AI’s build-out is meeting a pricier cost of money, while the rules meant to govern it are still being argued over.

CoreWeave, a neocloud that rents out computing power and funds its data centres with bonds, saw its shares fall 20% in the first three sessions of last week. The cost of insuring its debt against default hit its highest intraday level on record Thursday, per Bloomberg, before Nvidia’s Jensen Huang backed the company and shares rose 5.9%. Reuters reports some investors are discussing a valuation of about $1.5tn for Anthropic’s planned November IPO, against roughly $2tn previously anticipated. That is of course discussion, not a final price.

Power is the other limit here. Microsoft has reportedly pulled out of a UK data centre deal with Nscale in Essex, where power is not expected until the 2030s, per the Telegraph. Ireland’s problem is concentration as data centres took up to 50% of metered consumption in Dublin and Meath in 2024, per CRU data.

Dublin’s International AI Summit, hosted under Ireland’s EU Council presidency, produced more warnings than action, per the Business Post. Microsoft’s Brad Smith wanted binding safety laws with incident reporting, Google DeepMind’s Demis Hassabis an international standards body, and Ryanair’s Eddie Wilson warned EU rules would hobble Europe. Member states backed the Dublin Declaration, which is not legally binding. The Irish tension, The Currency’s Jonathan Keane writes, is that Europe wants sovereign tech while the exhibition hall was dominated by US firms, and Ireland relies heavily on tech-driven corporation tax receipts.

Watch for Anthropic’s IPO marketing, which Bloomberg says could begin the week of 09 November.

In Tuesday’s Tá, the Sector Spotlight will be Legal & Regulatory.

The Business Post has been investigating Mark Zuckerberg’s Guinness delivery logistics after a private jet linked to the Meta founder made a brief Dublin stop before he presented John Collison with a keg, only to pull a face at the first sip. Denis O’Brien has apparently sold his €40m superyacht Nero, recently used for Dua Lipa’s honeymoon, while Apple’s €2,369 foldable iPhone sold out within hours, leaving Irish buyers waiting until January. Elon Musk has unveiled a Tesla Roadster capable of a mid-air barrel roll, and Clondalkin startup Wondr is eyeing America with healthier jellies first developed in founder Mark Birrane’s kitchen, which he says he nearly blew up. Between the flying cars, private jets and billionaires transporting stout across the Atlantic, a packet of jellies is starting to look like the most sensible innovation of the lot.

The Read – RTÉ – Hard Drive: China forcing European car brands to cut back

Chinese car brands are making serious inroads into Ireland, accounting for 8.3% of new-car registrations and 17.8% of battery-electric sales in the first nine months of 2026. Adam Maguire looks at how their competitive pricing and growing market share are forcing European manufacturers to rethink costs, jobs and production, while Brussels considers how best to protect its car industry. A useful read on how a shift already visible on Irish roads is reshaping one of Europe's biggest industries. Link: Hard Drive: China forcing European car brands to cut back

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