Ryanair's €2bn headache. Ours is introspective.

02 November 2026

Good morning. Ireland's economy is outgrowing Europe, but its labour market is telling two very different stories. Ryanair is bracing for a €2bn fuel hit, public-sector unions are considering another strike, and AI investors are getting nervous about the bill.

Our promised YMT Weekend Introspective didn't make it out over the weekend. Turns out introspection takes longer than expected, especially when you're the one being introspective. It's still coming. For now, plenty to get through. Let’s get into it.

Monday - The Weekend Round-Up…

Irish business had a productive weekend on paper. EY Ireland reported annual revenue of €880m, up 4.4%, alongside a 53% increase in regional employment, while Kenmare Resources secured renewed mining rights in Mozambique through 2044, supporting plans for at least $200m in further investment. Households had less to celebrate, with Level Health announcing a 4.5% price increase from December, potentially adding €300–€360 to some families' annual bills.

Abroad, the weekend's biggest story was a record $6.3bn (€5.62bn) hack of Binance, which the FBI attributed to North Korea-linked hackers. The world's largest cryptocurrency exchange suspended withdrawals before restoring them, but customers withdrew a net $3.6bn shortly after services resumed. Bitcoin fell nearly 5% and Ether around 6%, adding to concerns about security across the cryptocurrency industry.

Meanwhile, Irishman Willie Walsh's IndiGo narrowed quarterly losses and grew revenue 25.9%, sending shares 4.3% higher on Friday despite continued pressure from aviation fuel costs.

1. Irish Growth Outpaces Europe As Housing Completions Rise. Ireland's economy expanded 5.5% in Q3, helping lift eurozone growth to 0.4%, twice economists' expectations. Germany grew just 0.2%, while Spain recorded 0.6%. Domestically, housing completions rose 10.4% to 10,154, bringing the year-to-date total to 26,833. Analysts expect approximately 39,000–40,000 completions this year, the highest since 2008, but still short of the estimated 50,000–60,000 homes needed annually.

2. Retail Employment Falls As Irish Manufacturers Keep Hiring. Employment in Irish retail and wholesale fell from 320,600 in mid-2023 to 289,800 in Q2 2026, a loss of more than 30,000 positions. Retail groups blame rising wages, energy and other operating costs, while 76 retail businesses became insolvent in the first half of 2026, compared with 29 three years earlier. Manufacturing presents a different picture as October's AIB PMI remained expansionary at 55.2, with stronger orders and hiring despite accelerating input costs. Ireland's employment pressures are looking considerably different depending on the sector.

3. Public-Sector Pay Talks Hit Impasse As Unions Consider Another Strike. Ten days of negotiations ended without agreement on Friday, with Fórsa saying no offer currently appears suitable for a membership ballot. The Workplace Relations Commission has asked a Government-appointed group to propose a way forward, while unions meet today to consider further industrial action on 11 November, potentially overlapping with planned garda work-to-rule action. Public Expenditure Minister Jack Chambers insists the Government remains committed to an agreement, but its €1.2bn allocation remains a sticking point.

4. Ryanair Faces €2bn Fuel Hit As AerCap Sees Opportunity. Ryanair reported first-half profit after tax of €2.15bn, down 15%, despite carrying 125.8m passengers, up 6%. With average fares down 4%, the airline warned its fuel bill could rise by approximately €2bn in FY28 as existing hedges expire, prompting a review of costs including possible temporary pay freezes, lower crewing ratios and greater AI use. It also announced an €800m buyback. Meanwhile, Dublin-based aircraft lessor AerCap says it has $14bn available to deploy, with financially pressured airlines potentially creating more sale-and-leaseback opportunities.

5. TikTok's Cancelled Data Centre Leaves Echelon With €100m Bill. Irish data-centre developer Echelon has agreed to pay TikTok €100m in compensation following the cancellation of its planned Clondalkin facility, with payment expected in 2026. TikTok also wrote off $65.8m on abandoned Irish office and data-centre projects, while shifting its infrastructure investment towards Norway and Finland. The precise contractual reason for Echelon compensating its prospective customer remains unclear.

Europe's online shopping market faces new costs as a €2 fee on low-value parcels entering the EU took effect yesterday, potentially raising €6bn annually and hitting cheap imports from platforms such as Temu and Shein. AstraZeneca announced a $1.5bn savings programme involving $2bn in restructuring costs, although potential job cuts remain unclear. Tesco agreed to sell its Czech and Slovak operations for €1.7bn, with proceeds earmarked for additional share buybacks. In Britain, Virgin Media O2 is reportedly preparing thousands of job cuts as it grapples with £22bn in debt. Markets ended the week with some dramatic contrasts: Intel plunged 28.5% on Friday following disappointing revenue forecasts, its worst trading day since 1982, while BP reported an 18-year profit high, helped by soaring oil-refining margins.

Tech & AI

AI’s earnings season has turned from a victory lap into a verdict on the cost of the build-out, with investors asking who gets paid back.

Alphabet fell about 13% on Thursday, its worst day ever, after a second straight quarter of negative free cash flow, which is the cash left after investment. On Friday the Nasdaq Composite fell over 2.3% and Intel dropped as much as 30%, after a revenue forecast hit by weak PC demand and data-centre supply snags. The Nasdaq 100 ended October down 6.7%, with about $3tn wiped off since its peak.

Funding is feeling it. OpenAI is reportedly seeking about $20bn at a $1.25tn valuation, down from a $30bn target at $1.4tn. Anthropic has filed to list on Nasdaq under ANT, and Davy’s Aidan Donnelly says he cannot make the case for it and sees little client appetite. Blackstone reportedly told investors Anthropic may not receive an investment-grade rating straight after listing. Marketing could begin as soon as the week of 9 November, with no pricing date set.

There are Irish positives from this earnings. Intel employs about 5,000 people here and announced a further €5bn of local investment this year, so its guidance matters. Equinix Ireland’s Peter Lantry wants more Dublin data centres built urgently, noting the sector took 23% of national electricity in 2025.

Watch Anthropic’s IPO marketing from next Monday, and any change to Intel’s Irish plans.

In Tuesday’s Tá, the Sector Spotlight will be Legal & Regulatory.

An Irish music royalties dispute has finally reached trial after ten years, featuring Van Morrison, U2 and the extraordinary allegation that ABBA's Agnetha Fältskog was once listed as a backing singer for Daniel O'Donnell. A collaboration nobody remembers booking. Meanwhile, tourists spent €595m in Ireland during September despite fewer visitors, presumably discovering that leaving the hotel is an expensive hobby. Motorists can relate, with tolls rising again in January and the Dublin Port Tunnel soon charging €15 at peak times. Finally, a sad farewell to Sir Patrick Stewart, who has died aged 86. Ian McKellen once warned him that Star Trek might ruin his theatre career. Instead, he became Captain Picard, Professor Xavier and one of the most beloved actors of his generation. A life very well lived.

The Read – Business Post – The public servant, the shareholder and the boomtime banker: PTSB’s Bawag sale hits court (Requires free account)

Judgment is reserved in the High Court’s review of Bawag’s €2.97-a-share PTSB takeover, and this account of the hearing explains why a likely formality became a contest. It follows Department of Finance official Des Carville, cross-examined for 30 minutes by dissident shareholder Piotr Skoczylas on whether price alone drove the State’s backing, and Axis Capital’s Mark Duffy, who stood up in court to ask the judge for 60 seconds. PTSB’s counsel called Axis’s possible €3.20 approach speculative and conditional. Mr Justice Quinn is expected to decide within two weeks. Link: The public servant, the shareholder and the boomtime banker: PTSB’s Bawag sale hits court

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