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30 October 2026

Good morning, and apologies if we missed your morning coffee. Today's Tá is later than usual and longer too, but there's a good reason. Between earnings season, Ireland's economic performance, banking, housing, energy, public-sector pay talks and the people influencing Government policy, we've packed in a pretty comprehensive picture of what's happening in Irish business and beyond. It's a particularly worthwhile Friday read.

And because we hit a big milestone this week, we've decided to reward you with... another newsletter. This weekend, we're turning the business coverage on ourselves, sharing how Your Morning Tá has grown, what's worked, what hasn't and where we're taking it next.

For now, there's plenty to get through. Let's get into it!

1. Who Really Shapes Ireland’s Economic Policy? The Business Post’s new Power 60 examines the people influencing Government decisions beyond elected politicians. Among its business figures are Stripe’s Collison brothers, whose Progress Ireland think tank is shaping housing debates; Ryanair’s Michael O’Leary, a vocal campaigner on Dublin Airport’s passenger cap; and Seán O’Driscoll, chair of the Government’s Accelerating Infrastructure Taskforce. AIB’s Colin Hunt and AWS’s Niamh Gallagher also feature, reflecting the influence of banking, renewable energy and data centres. The list is a useful look at how corporate influence reaches into public policy, often well before decisions reach Cabinet.

2. Irish Banks Grow As PTSB’s Takeover Battle Intensifies. Bank of Ireland reported net loans up 5% to €86.1bn, deposits up 3% to €110.3bn and income growth of 6%, drawing positive analyst reaction. PTSB delivered a 7% increase in operating income, cut costs by 2% and grew new mortgage lending by 10%. However, its proposed €1.62bn sale to Bawag remains before the High Court, with Axis Capital challenging PTSB’s refusal to provide information needed to pursue a possible €3.20-a-share rival bid. That alternative remains unfinanced and conditional, while the bank’s underlying business continues growing.

3. Dealz Jobs At Risk As Irish Retailers Make Different Bets. Around 3,000 Irish jobs could be affected after Poundland, owner of Dealz, filed notice of intent to appoint administrators, rejecting a rescue proposal from Derry-based Martin Property Group. Dealz operates roughly 60 Irish stores, with the filing providing temporary protection from creditors rather than confirming closures. Elsewhere, Donegal fashion brand Triona is investing approximately €700,000 in a Dawson Street flagship, backed by €6m in annual turnover and growing international interest. Two particularly different end of retail, with one fighting for survival and another committing to a 15-year lease in Dublin.

4. Irish GDP Surges As Energy Costs Threaten The Outlook. New CSO figures show GDP grew 5.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, driven largely by multinational-dominated industry and technology. Housing delivery also improved, with 10,154 homes completed, up 10% year-on-year, bringing the first nine months to 26,833. However, AIB warns that a prolonged energy shock could push Ireland into a modest recession in 2027, forecasting inflation averaging 3.1% and broadly flat real disposable income growth this year. The economy is producing impressive headline figures, but that does not mean households are experiencing the same growth.

5. Public-Sector Pay Talks Near A Decision. Negotiations enter their tenth day following this month’s strike involving more than 300,000 workers. Work-to-rule action continues, although a second stoppage was suspended to facilitate talks. Tánaiste Simon Harris is hopeful of an agreement in the coming days, but unions continue to warn the process could conclude without one, raising the prospect of further disruption to public services.

The ECB held interest rates steady at 2.5%, hours after president Christine Lagarde announced her departure in February 2027, leaving Europe facing an energy-driven inflation problem and a leadership change. Oil majors are enjoying the other side of that crisis as Shell posted $10.8bn in quarterly profit, TotalEnergies earned more than $9bn and BP recorded its strongest profit in 18 years. Meanwhile, Microsoft is seeking to raise $25bn through its first bond sale in nine years, as the enormous cost of building AI infrastructure pushes even the biggest technology companies towards borrowing. Intel shares plunged following disappointing forecasts, while Volkswagen reported its worst results in over a decade. Hackers also stole a reported $6.3bn from Binance, in what analysts describe as the largest cryptocurrency theft ever.

Property & Energy

Property is busy at the volume end and harder going on margin, planning and cost.

Housing is the clearest signal. The CSO reported 10,154 new dwellings completed in the third quarter, up 10% year on year, and 26,833 in the first nine months, up 10.6%, with Dublin accounting for 37% of completions. Those are finished homes rather than starts, the latter being the more infamous figure. Margins look thinner as Lagan Homes Ireland’s newly filed accounts show turnover of €89.2m from home sales last year, up from €63.5m, but gross profit of only €4.3m and operating profit of €2.2m. That is only one builder, but it does show how volume and profit can move apart.

Hotels are where capital is moving most visibly according to the Business Post. JLL’s Daniel O’Connor says as much as €250m was spent on Irish hotels in the first nine months, including MHL’s €100m purchase of the Holiday Inn Express and Crowne Plaza near Dublin Airport, with a further €500m available. Savills’ Tom Barrett puts the stock on the market higher, including hostels. Dublin’s Conrad is guiding above €130m through CBRE and the Morrison above €90m through JLL, but a guide price is an asking range, not a completed sale. Fáilte Ireland’s first-half figures, seven sales worth €82.75m against €340m a year earlier, show how uneven the year has been.

Planning remains the gatekeeper. Prime Arena has applied to Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown County Council for a €250m arena in Cherrywood with two Olympic-sized ice rinks, 8,000 seats for ice hockey and a 10,500 maximum for concerts. The applicant’s documents project about €350m a year for the economy and over 2,760 jobs, but there is no permission yet. In the city centre, An Coimisiún Pleanála refused the River Bar’s bid to keep its flags and outdoor dining at Burgh Quay, citing the O’Connell Street special planning scheme.

On energy, gas demand fell 10% in September from August and 3% from a year earlier, with demand from electricity generation 16% lower than in August. Other sectors rose as the heating season began.

Watch the National Energy Affordability Taskforce report, already delivered to Minister Darragh O’Brien and, according to the Business Post on 24 October, due for publication within two weeks. Options reportedly under consideration include a PSO levy rebate, an EU derogation on the 9% VAT rate on electricity, carbon tax changes and capital injections into EirGrid and ESB Networks.

In Monday’s Tá, the Sector Spotlight will be Tech & AI.

Friday – The Week in Summary…

Ireland closes the week with some impressive economic numbers and a few reasons not to get carried away. GDP grew 5.5% in Q3, housing completions rose 10%, and Bank of Ireland and PTSB reported stronger lending and income. Yet AIB warned that prolonged energy pressures could push the economy into recession next year, while Dealz's troubles put thousands of Irish jobs at risk. Elsewhere, TikTok's shrinking Irish workforce offered a reminder that multinational expansion can reverse quickly, while the Government moved to improve financing for smaller homebuilders and give An Post greater borrowing capacity. PTSB's takeover battle played out in court, the ECB held rates amid Christine Lagarde's impending departure, and the Business Post's Power 60 revealed some of the figures influencing Ireland's biggest policy decisions. Plenty happening, though not everyone is enjoying the same economy.

U2 have promised to finish their next world tour in Ireland, although they haven't decided when or where, which is quite the Irish approach to organising a homecoming. Meanwhile, two Avoca properties are up for sale for €29m, offering investors the chance to own the buildings without having to pay €29m for a particularly enthusiastic shopping basket as you would expect out there. If Bono is looking for a venue, he could always try an Avoca café since Bewley's seemed to do the job, although getting four lads and a drum kit past the cashmere throws might prove tricky. Tonight's Late Late Halloween special features Joe Duffy, Fionnula Flanagan and a scare challenge. Joe Duffy's agitating in-person should be a worthy winner of the latter.

The Read – Business Post – Has CRH lost its shine less than a year after joining the S&P 500? (requires free account)

CRH’s shares have fallen more than 30% in 2026, and Thursday’s guidance cut adds pressure. Adjusted EBITDA is now forecast at $7.8bn to $8bn, down from $8.1bn to $8.5bn, as energy costs rise and US residential demand softens. Alice O’Leary weighs that against a $6bn buyback to 2030 and brokers staying bullish, while Jim Mintern calls it a temporary timing issue. A useful test of how cost inflation reaches an Irish-founded multinational. Link: https://www.businesspost.ie/markets/has-crh-lost-its-shine-less-than-a-year-after-joining-the-sp-500/

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