🏢 Ireland’s Workforce Grows, GDP Jumps & Property Gets Pricier

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Good morning. Ireland starts the week with more people working for longer, domestic growth still holding up and fresh evidence that the cost of housing and commercial space is shaping where businesses can grow. Public-sector pay is moving closer to strike action, while Paddy Power’s shop review raises a bigger question about what happens to the smaller units being left behind as services move online. Let’s get into it.

Monday - The Weekend Round-Up…

The weekend added a run of deal activity and a few quieter Irish stories worth flagging before the week gets going.

Cairn and Glenveagh's share surges have sparked an IPO scramble among Ireland's private housebuilders, with Lioncor, D/Res, Evara and others quietly courting brokers at valuations potentially between €450m and €1.2bn.

Elsewhere, Donegal Investment Group has delayed its Dublin delisting into 2027, Temple Bar's pub group posted a 47% profit jump to €8.3m, and Flutter is cutting finance roles globally even as it reviews up to 100 Paddy Power shops.

On the growth side, Waterford's Eastgate Engineering is targeting €150m revenue by 2030, Kirby Group is doubling its South Africa workforce, and Blackberry Hearing is plotting acquisitions ahead of a UK push.

Internationally, Citi is closing in on a China brokerage licence, Anthropic is finalising a $15bn credit facility and setting an IPO date to rival SpaceX's, and ByteDance secured a $29.6bn AI-driven loan, as big tech's capital spree keeps flowing.

Concern grew over the weekend as Trump threatened to end trade with surplus countries, Ireland included, unless Fed chair Kevin Warsh cuts rates ahead of the 16^th September decision.

1. Ireland’s Workforce Is Getting Bigger And Working Longer. More than 1.3m women were employed in Ireland in Q2, almost 90% more than in 2000. Meanwhile, just one in five adults expects to retire fully, with most expecting to work longer or wind down gradually. Irish Life puts the average pension pot people think they need at €315,000, against current average retirement savings of €102,000, leaving a lot of work to be done for a comfortable retirement. 

2. Irish GDP Jumps 10.2%, But The Domestic Picture Is Steadier. GDP grew 10.2% in Q2 as multinational output rebounded, although it was still down 7% across the first half after a volatile start to the year. The more useful domestic measure shows the economy grew 3.1% in H1, helped by a 2.8% rise in personal spending. Big multinational swings aside, Irish consumers and domestic businesses entered the second half with growth still holding up.

3. Claret Raises €575m As Property Costs Keep Biting. Claret Capital has closed a €575m fund, including €30m from ISIF, and could eventually back up to 15 Irish companies. Its managing partner says housing is now the biggest obstacle to scaling here. That lands alongside ESRI estimates that house prices are 17% above fundamentals, while SCSI expects prime office rents to rise another 6% over the coming year. Both of those numbers are prime examples of the supply issue and ultimately lead to higher cost for buyers and renters, residential and commercial.

4. Public-Sector Pay Moves Towards Strike Action. Fórsa says strike action will begin on 30 September after June’s talks failed, while union leader Kevin Callinan wants a multi-year formula linking future pay increases to inflation. The numbers matter beyond the public service: IFAC estimates a 4% increase next year would cost more than €1bn. Any settlement will feed directly into Government spending, and the wider conversation employers are having about pay.

5. Paddy Power Leaves A New High-Street Problem Behind. The bigger question around Paddy Power’s shop review is what happens to the units if betting keeps moving online. Larger former Argos stores have generally found new occupants, but small betting-shop premises, particularly in provincial towns, can be much harder to repurpose. Prime retail demand remains relatively strong, but the weaker end of the high street faces another round of difficult vacancies as services increasingly migrate online.

China is pumping $53.6bn into three state-owned banks and five insurers as Beijing tries to strengthen lending into a slowing economy. Jaguar Land Rover has opened a voluntary redundancy programme, with reports suggesting up to 4,000 jobs could go as it pursues £1.7bn of cost cuts following last year’s costly cyberattack and the relevant UK minister says there will be no bailout. European manufacturers are also under pressure, with industry group Eurometal warning of another 300,000 potential factory job losses this year. Meanwhile, Anthropic could reportedly file IPO paperwork as soon as next week, as AI’s capital race moves from fundraising towards public markets.

Tech & AI

The last 7 days of Tech & AI sits between relentless build-out and a rising signal that automation's human bill is coming due.

OpenAI said its ad business hit $1bn in annualised revenue in under 200 days, adding fuel to its push toward a public listing, while GPT-6 Astra, unveiled this week, becomes the first OpenAI model to reach what the company calls "critical" cybersecurity capability, and forcing it to bolt on new safeguards against misuse. PwC separately forecasts global data-centre spending could hit $31.6tn by 2050, a build-out its authors compare to electrification and the internet, though at least 75 projects worth $130bn have already been blocked or delayed by local opposition.

That opposition is starting to look organised elsewhere too. WPP, one of the world’s largest advertising and PR companies, is cutting up to 1,000 more advertising jobs as AI reshapes the industry, Micron's Taiwanese unions are threatening strike action over bonus-sharing, and Uber has struck an unlikely alliance with driver unions to slow robotaxi rollout in parts of the US.

Ireland is feeling the same tension without the same leverage yet. The Financial Services Union's pre-budget submission wants tax credits for AI-exposed bank, tech and fintech workers to fund reskilling, alongside a stronger right to remote work. Smurfit Westrock's Tony Smurfit, speaking in Dublin, warned some tech valuations are "excessive" and due to correct. Dublin-based streamer Clubber, meanwhile, offered a rare growth counterpoint, with revenue now in the seven-digit range as it pivots toward rugby rights.

Watch whether the FSU's reskilling-credit ask features in Budget 2027 submissions from other unions.

In Tuesday’s Tá, the Sector Spotlight will be Legal & Regulatory.

Gianni Infantino is preparing to seek re-election as FIFA president in March, seeking to extend one of world sport’s more durable executive careers despite UEFA's hopes of a successful criminal complaint against him for his World Cup sell-off antics. Dublin has its own institution showing similar staying power: The Temple Bar. The group behind the pub famous for some of Ireland’s most expensive pints made €8.3m after tax last year, up 47%, on €38.3m of revenue. Different governance models, admittedly, but both appear to have found a fairly reliable way of keeping the name above the door... that is if Infantino actually manages to stay.

The Read – Business Post (requires free account) – Major US tax change would risk billions in multinational investments into Ireland

Central Bank modelling shared with the Business Post shows Ireland's intangible investment flows, currently €73.3bn a year, could fall by more than 20% if Washington raises minimum worldwide tax rates on multinationals' overseas royalty income. A 2.5 percentage point US top-up above Ireland's 15% rate could cut annual IP inflows by up to €15bn, rising to €30bn under a 5-point increase. The analysis builds on last year's Tax Mirage findings that $967bn in multinational IP now sits in Ireland and quantifies just how exposed the corporate tax base remains to US policy decisions Dublin cannot control. Link: Major US tax change would risk billions in multinational investments into Ireland

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