Friday

10 July 2026

Good morning. A hot week in Ireland comes to an end with public pay moving towards industrial action, employers testing the limits of remote work, and the US-Iran conflict starting to show up in Irish company results. Abroad, oil is steadier, Wall Street is higher and China’s factories are offering a harsher reminder of what cheap production can cost. Let’s get into it.

1. Public-Service Pay Dispute Moves Towards Industrial Action. Fórsa is to ballot more than 90,000 members working across the Civil Service, health, education, local government and other public bodies after talks on a successor to the expired pay agreement stalled. The ballot does not mean strikes are confirmed, but it gives Ireland’s largest public-service union a mandate to escalate. Government now faces pay pressure across services, payroll and Budget planning at once.

2. Management Controls Are Getting Expensive. The WRC dismissed an unfair-dismissal complaint from a PwC employee who worked from India despite being contractually based in Dublin. Separately, research says large Irish organisations spend an average €667,000 annually on obsolete “zombie projects”, with 18% lacking an IT strategy. Different problems, same management warning: unclear oversight can create tax, data, client and technology costs long after flexibility or investment initially looked sensible.

3. The US-Iran Conflict Is Reaching Irish Trading Results. Hostelworld said the war reduced first-half booking growth by about three percentage points, particularly in Asia and Oceania, although stronger commission income supported double-digit revenue growth and full-year guidance was maintained. June inflation eased to 3.4% partly because diesel and petrol fell before the latest clashes. Travel demand has already reacted; Ireland’s next inflation figures will show how quickly the renewed oil shock follows.

4. State Companies Deliver Bigger Returns To The Exchequer. Commercial State bodies paid €398 million in dividends last year, up 24% on 2024, mainly because of larger payments from DAA and EirGrid. The cash strengthens the public finances, but both companies also sit inside expensive airport, electricity-grid and infrastructure programmes. Asking State assets to fund today’s Exchequer while investing for tomorrow leaves less room for either job to be treated casually.

5. Business Confidence Rises, But The Economy Is Splitting. Irish business optimism increased to 7.2 out of 10 in June, from 6.9 three months earlier and 5.7 six months ago. However, only around half of firms with fewer than 49 employees were optimistic, while 65% of respondents said geopolitical disruption had strained their finances and the same share were restructuring supply chains. Larger companies can absorb volatility; smaller ones increasingly have to reorganise around it.

US and Iranian forces continue to trade blows following the ceasefire faltering, although technical talks are continuing and both sides still appear to be leaving room for negotiation. Oil steadied as traders reassessed the immediate threat to flows through Hormuz, while semiconductor and financial stocks lifted Wall Street. China’s inflation slowed to 1% in June as energy costs cooled, but a shoe-factory fire that killed at least 28 people exposed the safety risks inside one of the world’s densest manufacturing hubs. In Britain, Andy Burnham secured overwhelming support from Labour MPs, while UAE telecoms group E& agreed to sell its Vodafone stake for $5.95 billion to Xavier Niel’s family group, subject to regulatory requirements.

Property & Energy

Property and energy this week showed two speeds again: the State moving decisively and expensively on transport infrastructure, private landlords quietly re-engineering physical space to manage vacancy, and a widening gap between what homes are asking for and what they are actually selling for.

Transport Infrastructure Ireland has bought roughly two acres of O'Connell Street frontage from UK group Hammerson, the former Carlton cinema site, as part of an €80.7 million non-core asset sale, to secure land for MetroLink's underground station without a compulsory purchase process. More than €525 million has now been spent on MetroLink before construction even starts, with the project's 2022 cost range of €7.16 to €12.25 billion expected to be revised to somewhere near €16 to €18 billion.

Housing supply is also moving slower than hoped. Davy downgraded its 2026 completions forecast to 44,000 from 50,000 and said the shortfall will persist to 2035 even with output reaching 75,000 homes a year by then. Yet MyHome's Q2 report found asking-price inflation accelerated to 5%, ahead of forecasts, while the CSO's transaction price index rose just 0.2% between December and April, the softest start to a year since 2020, a widening gap between what sellers ask and what buyers actually pay.

Retail landlords, meanwhile, are reshaping space rather than waiting for tenants. Jervis Shopping Centre's new owners filed two planning applications this week to convert long-vacant units into a restaurant and a leisure venue, tackling near-30% vacancy, while Dundrum's operator sought to close a shopper route it says is complicating a re-let ahead of Zara Home's first Irish store.

On energy, SEAI found Ireland still imports 78.2% of its energy, well above the EU's 57.3% average, though coal use fell 45% and solar rose 50%. Activ8 Solar's new 6MW, zero-upfront installation at Mannok in Cavan shows industry funding that transition itself.

Watch for Cabinet's sign-off on MetroLink's revised cost range, flagged for early autumn, and whether Q3 completions data starts closing the gap between asking prices and actual output.

In Monday’s Tá, the Sector Spotlight will be Tech & AI.

Friday – The Week in Summary…

Ireland spent the week watching provisional stories turn into formal pressure. Microsoft’s global cuts reached at least 60 Irish roles, Fórsa moved public pay towards an industrial-action ballot, and MetroLink continued assembling the sites needed before construction can begin. DCC’s takeover deadline moved again, while International Shareholder Services backed Bawag’s €2.97-a-share PTSB proposal ahead of the 30th of July vote. Even business confidence improved with conditions attached. The week’s notable shift was from warnings and proposals into payroll decisions, shareholder consent and processes that now require an answer.

René Higuita produced football’s most famous save but could not save his Medellín home from seizure over money linked to Pablo Escobar. Florida, once a destination for rather different Colombian exports, is renaming Palm Beach airport after its most famous part-time resident, Donald Trump. On flashy power and wealth, private-jet demand is rising as SpaceX and AI wealth takes flight, while Donal Skehan is keeping things grounded, taking Irish-made cooking shows to a global digital audience with entertainment firm, Fremantle.

The Read – Business Post (requires free account) – Colm Lauder: The Irish REIT market is dead, and London should ask why

Prologis's £13 billion approach for UK warehouse giant Segro is the peg, but the real argument here is about Ireland. Lauder contends the Irish REIT sector, now reduced to nothing after Green, Hibernia and Yew Grove were all sold, is unlikely to be revived under the current regime, and argues that's fine. Ireland’s two biggest housebuilders, Cairn Homes and Glenveagh, show listed housebuilders – not income-focused REITs – are the more relevant vehicle for funding Irish delivery. For anyone in property, finance or policy, it reframes the housing capital debate around which listed model actually fits the job. Link: Colm Lauder: The Irish REIT market is dead, and London should ask why

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