🏷️ Exports plunge, parcels get pricier & bond markets get pricier

19 August 2026

Good morning. Ireland’s export numbers look brutal at first glance, but there’s a little more going on under the bonnet. Elsewhere, online shopping is getting pricier, big Irish-relevant businesses are having a busy week, and bond markets are starting to look distinctly uncomfortable. Let’s get into it.

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1. The US Export Numbers Need Some Unpacking. Irish goods exports to the US fell 65.1% to €26.2bn in the first half of 2026, driven overwhelmingly by pharma, where exports dropped 75.7%. At the same time, June exports overall were actually up 7.1% year-on-year, while UK exports rose 42.6%. Some relief is that Grant Thornton and many others have highlighted that last year’s tariff-driven front-loading is still distorting comparisons, making the headline fall rather less apocalyptic than it first appears.

2. Your Cheap Online Order Is Getting Less Cheap. Buying from outside the EU is getting another little surcharge. A €2 handling fee is expected from November, according to An Post, on top of the €3 customs duty introduced on low-value items last month. The precise scope has yet to be confirmed, but the proposed fee is intended to cover customs-processing costs. For Shein, Temu, and other non-EU orders, those small baskets are steadily acquiring a bigger checkout bill.

3. Big Business Continues A Busy Week. ICG’s board has again backed management’s €1.2bn takeover, rejecting shareholder criticism ahead of the August 28 vote, while Pageant confirmed it has voted against the deal. Over at Guinness owner Diageo, Dave Lewis could earn up to €23.4m by 2029 if shareholders approve a new pay plan and ambitious turnaround targets are hit. Diageo’s global headcount also fell more than 6% last year ahead of the new proposed restructuring plans.

4. Money Into Property, Objections Into Planning. Brighton FC’s professional gambler and stats-focused owner Tony Bloom has quietly financed 19 loans behind Meath-based Star Stone Property Group since 2022, most recently helping fund its €600,000 purchase of Drogheda’s Abbey Shopping Centre. The group plans apartments above new shops there. Meanwhile in north Dublin, Fianna Fáil TD Tom Brabazon has appealed Dublin City Council’s permission for the LDA’s 711-home Clongriffin scheme, citing concerns over community infrastructure.

5. FDI Has Its Say On Ireland. Ireland’s US multinationals are putting skills near the top of their Budget wish list as 56% of AmCham members report talent shortages, particularly in AI, machine learning, and engineering, with access to workers identified as a major investment risk. The existing footprint is still deepening too with Regeneron, which employs more than 2,000 people here, securing permission for a new 1,460 sq. m. training, conference, and events centre at its Limerick campus.

Trump has paused plans to impose 50% tariffs on Canadian goods, easing another transatlantic trade headache for now. Elsewhere, Trump said no talks with Iran are scheduled after a 60-day ceasefire expired, while Brent crude remained above $90. In Britain, job vacancies fell to 707,000, their lowest since 2021, with private-sector wage growth also cooling. Klarna shares dropped 19% after the fintech cut its full-year revenue guidance despite quarterly sales beating expectations. And at BHP, copper has overtaken iron ore as its biggest annual profit driver for the first time, generating 54% of underlying EBITDA as earnings from the metal jumped 48%.

Finance & Markets

Markets are being pulled in two directions this morning, with a genuinely global bond selloff overshadowing signs of underlying economic resilience.

Long-term borrowing costs hit multi-decade highs across major economies on Tuesday. Thirty-year US Treasury yields rose to their highest since 2007, at 5.33%, up 0.06 percentage points on the week. German 30-year yields reached levels last seen during the 2011-euro crisis, French equivalents their highest since 2008, and UK gilts approached 6%. Ireland's 10-year yield rose to 3.41%, still comparatively contained but moving with the pack.

Analysts point to a combination of forces behind the move as Brent crude rose back above $90 as Middle East tensions resurface, on top of heavy AI-linked bond issuance from hyperscalers, and governments paying more to service already large debts, with all of it being a dynamic some strategists describe as a "doom loop". The next test comes today and tomorrow, when Japan and the US both sell long-dated debt. The US Treasury is selling $16bn of 20-year bonds today, with pre-auction pricing pointing to a yield near 5.27%, which would be the highest for that maturity since it was reintroduced in 2020. Weak demand at either sale would confirm investors are demanding a bigger premium to hold long-term government debt while a well-covered auction would ease the panic, at least temporarily.

Set against that, sentiment data looks unexpectedly steady as Bank of America's August fund manager survey found 97% of European respondents expect no recession within a year, the highest reading since 2007, with banks remaining managers' most preferred sector and European tech seen as most overvalued – maybe a little biased from the American’s.

Irish-exposed names are already feeling the yield move. The Iseq fell 1.26% on Tuesday, led down by Ryanair and Kingspan. Bank of Ireland and AIB have still seen combined institutional shareholding value rise €6.1bn over the past year despite the wobble.

Watch whether Wednesday's US 20-year sale draws firm demand.

In Thursday’s Tá, the Sector Spotlight will be Health & Pharma.

Wednesday - By The Numbers

$94.2bn: The value of Alphabet’s SpaceX stake at the end of June, after Google invested just $900m back in 2015.

€2 + €3 per item: The extra costs stacking up on low-value non-EU shopping, with a €2 handling fee expected per parcel from November on top of the €3 customs duty already charged on each distinct product type.

24%: Aviva’s jump in first-half operating profit to £1.33bn, helped by its Direct Line acquisition.

$400m: The latest funding round for AI video platform Higgsfield, valuing the company at $5.4bn after it was valued at $1.3bn only eight months earlier.

8%: The fall in US consumer sentiment in August, with longer-term expectations dropping an even steeper 17%.

711: Homes in the LDA’s proposed second phase at Clongriffin Central, now facing an appeal to An Coimisiún Pleanála after Dublin City Council granted permission in July.

56%: AmCham members reporting talent shortages, particularly across AI, machine learning and, engineering, as US multinationals push skills higher up Ireland’s competitiveness agenda.

Dublin’s AI salary wars are getting silly, with Anthropic offering €295k for a deal-desk chief while Stripe will pay up to €165k to keep sanctions in check. Apple is loosening its App Store rules, Belfast’s beloved Samson and Goliath cranes are getting a £3m spruce-up, Jeff Bezos’ consortium has quietly taken about 40% of the Reds, and Clubber will stream 2,000+ club matches this year. Salary envy, freshly painted cranes, and more GAA than anyone could reasonably keep up with.

The Read – Business Post (Requires Free Account) – Meta and BlackRock data centre in Texas exposed to insurance risk

A $14bn AI data-centre campus sounds like the sort of asset everyone would want insured to the hilt, but apparently not. This piece gets into the less obvious problem created by the scale of the AI infrastructure boom as some projects are becoming so large that only a fraction of the potential catastrophic loss can be fully covered. That leaves lenders carrying a risk that normally sits further down the list when financing a data centre and makes this a useful look at where the AI spending boom is starting to strain traditional financial infrastructure. Link: Meta and BlackRock data centre in Texas exposed to insurance risk

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